Two quarterbacks have emerged as the top quarterback candidates in Thursday’s 1st round. The Los Angeles Rams (I have to get used to saying that again) and the Philadelphia Eagles both jumped up from their original draft positions through trades, to secure the top two picks in the draft. History shows us why.
Since 1996, fifty quarterbacks have been selected in the first round by teams looking for a franchise quarterback to hang their hats on. Unfortunately, the success rate of these picks is not as high as one would hope.
To review the last 20 years of quarterbacks drafted in the first round, I loaded draft results from pro-football-reference.com and, based on a number of factors, I categorized the quarterbacks into three groups: Franchise QB, Average QB, and Bust. I then decided to see if I could uncover any trends in the data.
Here is a breakdown of what I found:
- It is hard to identify which quarterbacks will be franchise quarterbacks. And if you want any chance of drafting a franchise QB, you'd better be drafting in the top 5.
In my analysis, I could only identify 15 quarterbacks (30%) who were worthy of the franchise QB tag. Out of those 15 Franchise QBs, 12 (80%) were drafted in the first 5 picks of the draft. This is the reason that both the LA Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles moved up to the top 2 spots to presumably draft a quarterback. The question is which QB (Jared Goff or Carson Wentz), if any, will become the franchise QB. History shows that it most likely won’t be both of them and, more than likely, could be neither of them.